Cheltenham 2-1 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cheltenham at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cheltenham vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Accrington ST make the trip to EV Charger Points Stadium to face Cheltenham in League Two, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Tuesday 1 October 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cheltenham have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cheltenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at EV Charger Points Stadium, Cheltenham have gone 3W 0D 7L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Accrington ST (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 League Two outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Accrington ST have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Cheltenham, 0.60 for Accrington ST — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Cheltenham 1W, Accrington ST 1W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cheltenham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Accrington ST goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 51% versus Accrington ST 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 47% | Accrington ST 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.38 xG and Accrington ST 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.718 / defence 1.173 | Accrington ST attack 0.856 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.164. Cheltenham's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing Cheltenham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Cheltenham games / 53 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 42% | Draw 27% | Accrington ST 32%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Accrington ST 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cheltenham at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cheltenham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cheltenham 50% | Accrington ST 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: EV Charger Points Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 42% | Draw 27% | Accrington ST 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Cheltenham 1.38 / Accrington ST 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.718 / def 1.173 | Accrington ST attack 0.856 / def 1.352 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Cheltenham (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Accrington ST xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cheltenham vs Accrington ST kick off?
Cheltenham vs Accrington ST kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 October 2024 at EV Charger Points Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Accrington ST?
Cheltenham 2 - 1 Accrington ST.
Where is Cheltenham vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at EV Charger Points Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Accrington ST part of?
Cheltenham vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 42% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cheltenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cheltenham and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Cheltenham vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Accrington ST?
Record (4 meetings): Cheltenham 1W | Draws 2 | Accrington ST 1W.
What form are Cheltenham and Accrington ST in?
Cheltenham (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Accrington ST (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cheltenham's attack rating (0.72) and Accrington ST's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Accrington ST's attack (0.86x) against Cheltenham's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 8/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cheltenham Win
42%
2.40
27%
3.77
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.55
1.17
Accrington ST xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
8%
12.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Cheltenham and 1.17 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cheltenham's recent record stands at 14W 9D 30L from 53 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Cheltenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Accrington ST, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 25L across 53 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Accrington ST, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Cheltenham against 1.13 for Accrington ST. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cheltenham have managed 9W 4D 13L from 26 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Accrington ST's away record stands at 6W 4D 16L across 26 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Cheltenham are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.34 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Accrington ST in 60%.
Last 53 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Blended
Accrington ST
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cheltenham and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 14W 9D 30L in their last 53 games (0.96 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 16W 12D 25L in their last 53 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Accrington ST away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.19 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cheltenham have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cheltenham
3
Draws
2
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Accrington ST?
From 8 meetings on record, Cheltenham have won 3, Accrington ST have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Accrington ST 3-1 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Accrington ST?
Cheltenham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 46%, Accrington ST 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Cheltenham) and 65% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Cheltenham have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cheltenham play Accrington ST?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Cheltenham's games and 69% of Accrington ST's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cheltenham vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Cheltenham's recent games and 65% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Cheltenham have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cheltenham edge out Accrington ST 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cheltenham beat Accrington ST 2-1 at EV Charger Points Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.38 xG and Accrington ST 1.17 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.72 / defence 1.17 against Accrington ST attack 0.86 / defence 1.35, drawn from 8/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 42% | Draw 27% | Accrington ST 32%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 47%, Accrington ST 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Accrington ST's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cheltenham 0.96 PPG, Accrington ST 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cheltenham win broke the near-deadlock. Cheltenham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.