🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Carlisle and Walsall share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carlisle and Walsall finished level at 1-1 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 0.70 xG and Walsall 1.57 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.57 / defence 1.27 against Walsall attack 1.15 / defence 0.96, drawn from 33/80 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carlisle 16% | Draw 25% | Walsall 58%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 43%, Walsall 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carlisle's trading profile (79 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Walsall's trading profile (79 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Walsall arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights