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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Carlisle defy the odds to beat Port Vale 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carlisle beat Port Vale 3-2 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 43, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 1.08 xG and Port Vale 1.55 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Carlisle beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.81 / defence 1.32 against Port Vale attack 1.05 / defence 1.00, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carlisle 26% | Draw 26% | Port Vale 48%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Carlisle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 46%, Port Vale 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carlisle's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Port Vale's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Port Vale arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Carlisle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Carlisle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights