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Prediction vindicated as Carlisle edge out Newport County 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carlisle beat Newport County 3-2 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 41, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 1.33 xG and Newport County 1.18 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Carlisle beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Newport County outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.74 / defence 1.30 against Newport County attack 0.84 / defence 1.39, drawn from 40/86 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carlisle 40% | Draw 27% | Newport County 33%, with Carlisle to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 45%, Newport County 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carlisle's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Newport County's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Newport County arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Carlisle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Carlisle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm. Newport County (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights