Carlisle 1-1 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Harrogate Town (39%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Carlisle face Harrogate Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Carlisle welcome Harrogate Town to Brunton Park in League Two (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 19 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Carlisle — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Carlisle's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 home games (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Harrogate Town stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Harrogate Town have posted 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Harrogate Town — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Harrogate Town have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Carlisle.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Feb 2023, ended Carlisle 0–1 Harrogate Town — a Harrogate Town win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Harrogate Town have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Carlisle trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Harrogate Town trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 53% versus Harrogate Town 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 49% | Harrogate Town 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 1.19 xG and Harrogate Town 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 0.860 / defence 1.390 | Harrogate Town attack 0.779 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.212. Harrogate Town's attack rating of 0.779 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.31. Carlisle's defence rating of 1.390 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Harrogate Town's projected output up. Data: built from Carlisle's last 11 games and Harrogate Town's last 57.
Result probabilities: Carlisle 34% | Draw 27% | Harrogate Town 39%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 2.97 | Draw 3.71 | Harrogate Town 2.54. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Harrogate Town as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Harrogate Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Carlisle 70% (last 10 home games) | Harrogate Town 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 12 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 34% | Draw 27% | Harrogate Town 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Carlisle 1.19 / Harrogate Town 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 0.860 / def 1.390 | Harrogate Town attack 0.779 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Harrogate Town (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Harrogate Town xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Carlisle vs Harrogate Town FAQs
What time does Carlisle vs Harrogate Town kick off?
Carlisle vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Harrogate Town?
Carlisle 1 - 1 Harrogate Town.
Where is Carlisle vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Harrogate Town part of?
Carlisle vs Harrogate Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 12) (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 34% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Harrogate Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Carlisle and Harrogate Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Carlisle vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Carlisle's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Harrogate Town's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Harrogate Town's attack versus Carlisle's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Carlisle's last 11 games and Harrogate Town's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Harrogate Town Win
34%
2.97
27%
3.71
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Carlisle xG
Total xG
2.50
1.31
Harrogate Town xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
9%
11.02
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.7 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Carlisle vs Harrogate Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Carlisle and 1.31 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Harrogate Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Carlisle have picked up 0.65 PPG on a 9W 10D 38L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Harrogate Town's form line: 21W 14D 22L from 57 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Harrogate Town are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Carlisle.
Venue Form
On home soil, Carlisle have posted 0.64 PPG from their last 28 home games (4W 6D 18L).
On the road, Harrogate Town have gone 9W 11D 8L from their last 28 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Harrogate Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Carlisle are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 1.23 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Blended
Harrogate Town
Blended
Carlisle (Home) vs Harrogate Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Carlisle
Blended
Harrogate Town
Blended
❓ Carlisle vs Harrogate Town Form FAQs
What form are Carlisle and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 9W 10D 38L in their last 57 games (0.65 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 21W 14D 22L in their last 57 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Harrogate Town away?
Harrogate Town's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 0.64 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Apr 2022, when Harrogate Town won Harrogate Town 3-0 Carlisle.
Carlisle's record when hosting Harrogate Town specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Carlisle
2
Draws
4
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Carlisle vs Harrogate Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Harrogate Town?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Carlisle have won 0, Harrogate Town have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Harrogate Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2025: Harrogate Town 1-0 Carlisle.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and Harrogate Town?
Harrogate Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Harrogate Town see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 61%, Harrogate Town 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Carlisle) and 46% (Harrogate Town).
On the defensive side: Harrogate Town in 32%; Carlisle have failed to score in 32% of games; Harrogate Town in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Carlisle vs Harrogate Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Carlisle and Harrogate Town matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Carlisle's games and 50% of Harrogate Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Carlisle and Harrogate Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Carlisle's recent games and 46% of Harrogate Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carlisle and Harrogate Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Carlisle's recent matches and 50% of Harrogate Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Carlisle and Harrogate Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carlisle and Harrogate Town finished level at 1-1 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 12, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 1.19 xG and Harrogate Town 1.31 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.86 / defence 1.39 against Harrogate Town attack 0.78 / defence 1.04, drawn from 11/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 34% | Draw 27% | Harrogate Town 39%, with Harrogate Town to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 49%, Harrogate Town 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Harrogate Town arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Carlisle (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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