Carlisle 0-2 Forest Green – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Forest Green at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Carlisle vs Forest Green encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Forest Green travel to Brunton Park to take on Carlisle. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 October 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carlisle stand at 2W 4D 3L from 9 League Two matches — 1.11 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Carlisle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Brunton Park, Carlisle have gone 1W 3D 0L this season (4 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Forest Green have recorded 6W 2D 1L from 9 outings — 2.22 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Forest Green, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forest Green away from home this season: 3W 1D 0L from 4 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Forest Green are 1.11 PPG ahead (2.22 vs 1.11), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Carlisle trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Forest Green trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 67% versus Forest Green 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 67% | Forest Green 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 0.88 xG and Forest Green 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 1.029 / defence 1.167 | Forest Green attack 1.289 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 0.919 / away 1.050. Forest Green have an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 Carlisle games / 9 Forest Green games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carlisle 19% | Draw 30% | Forest Green 52%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 5.26 | Draw 3.33 | Forest Green 1.92. Forest Green hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Forest Green as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forest Green offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Carlisle 75% | Forest Green 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Forest Green | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 19% | Draw 30% | Forest Green 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Carlisle 0.88 / Forest Green 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 1.029 / def 1.167 | Forest Green attack 1.289 / def 0.929 | league avg home 0.919 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Forest Green (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Forest Green xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carlisle vs Forest Green kick off?
Carlisle vs Forest Green kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Forest Green?
Carlisle 0 - 2 Forest Green.
Where is Carlisle vs Forest Green being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Forest Green part of?
Carlisle vs Forest Green is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Forest Green?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 19% chance of winning, Forest Green a 52% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Forest Green the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Forest Green?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Carlisle and Forest Green will score (BTTS).
Will Carlisle vs Forest Green have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Forest Green?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Carlisle and Forest Green in?
Carlisle (all comps): 2W-4D-3L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Forest Green (all comps): 6W-2D-1L in 9 | 2.22 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.89 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Carlisle's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Forest Green's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, Forest Green's attack versus Carlisle's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-2 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forest Green Win
19%
5.34
30%
3.37
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Carlisle xG
Total xG
2.46
1.58
Forest Green xG
5.34
19%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
4%
25.92
21%
4.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 13.5 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Forest Green?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Forest Green expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Carlisle and 1.58 for Forest Green, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Forest Green?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Carlisle's recent record stands at 2W 4D 3L from 9 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Carlisle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Forest Green, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 1L across 9 games — 2.22 PPG, with L-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Forest Green is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Forest Green by 1.11 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Carlisle heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Carlisle have managed 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Forest Green's away record stands at 3W 1D 0L across 4 trips, a 2.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forest Green come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Carlisle are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Forest Green are on 2.00 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Carlisle have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Forest Green in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Blended
Forest Green
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carlisle and Forest Green in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 2W 4D 3L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while Forest Green have gone 6W 2D 1L in their last 9 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Forest Green away?
Forest Green's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 1.50 PPG; Forest Green away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Carlisle or Forest Green been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carlisle have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Forest Green in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Carlisle
0
Draws
2
Forest Green
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Forest Green?
From 2 meetings on record, Carlisle have won 0, Forest Green have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Forest Green last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when Forest Green 3-0 Carlisle.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and Forest Green?
Forest Green have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Forest Green are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 75%, Forest Green 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Carlisle and 75% for Forest Green. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Forest Green in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Forest Green away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carlisle play Forest Green?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Carlisle's games and 50% of Forest Green's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Carlisle vs Forest Green usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Carlisle's matches and 75% of Forest Green's.
Do Carlisle and Forest Green tend to score early?
Carlisle have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Forest Green in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Forest Green cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Carlisle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forest Green beat Carlisle 0-2 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 10, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 0.88 xG and Forest Green 1.58 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Carlisle fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 1.03 / defence 1.17 against Forest Green attack 1.29 / defence 0.93, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 19% | Draw 30% | Forest Green 52%, with Forest Green to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 67%, Forest Green 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Forest Green's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Forest Green arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.