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Stalemate at Carlisle's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carlisle and Colchester finished level at 0-0 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 32, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 0.71 xG and Colchester 1.54 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Colchester landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.62 / defence 1.44 against Colchester attack 0.96 / defence 0.86, drawn from 30/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carlisle 16% | Draw 27% | Colchester 57%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 45%, Colchester 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carlisle's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Colchester's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Colchester arrived the stronger side — 1.13 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line. Colchester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights