Carlisle vs Chesterfield – Predictions
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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Most Likely Outcome
Chesterfield Win
23%
4.28
26%
3.89
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Carlisle xG
Total xG
2.70
1.65
Chesterfield xG
CarlisleDrawChesterfield
4.28
23%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
4%
22.35
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
λ Home (xG)
1.049
λ Away (xG)
1.654
Total xG
2.703
League avg home goals
1.293
League avg away goals
1.245
Carlisle attack strength
0.700
Carlisle defence strength
1.112
Chesterfield attack strength
1.195
Chesterfield defence strength
1.158
Data phase
CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A)
18 / 19