Carlisle 0-1 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cheltenham at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Carlisle vs Cheltenham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 14 as Carlisle welcome Cheltenham to Brunton Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Carlisle have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Carlisle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carlisle's home record at Brunton Park: 1W 2D 7L from 10 League Two appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cheltenham stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cheltenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Cheltenham have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Cheltenham's 1.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Carlisle's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Carlisle, 1 for Cheltenham and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Carlisle winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Carlisle in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cheltenham in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 54% versus Cheltenham 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 49% | Cheltenham 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 1.37 xG and Cheltenham 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 0.849 / defence 1.346 | Cheltenham attack 0.944 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.262. Cheltenham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Carlisle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Carlisle games / 13 Cheltenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carlisle 33% | Draw 24% | Cheltenham 43%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | Cheltenham 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cheltenham at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cheltenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Carlisle 70% | Cheltenham 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Cheltenham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 33% | Draw 24% | Cheltenham 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Carlisle 1.37 / Cheltenham 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 0.849 / def 1.346 | Cheltenham attack 0.944 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Cheltenham (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Cheltenham xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carlisle vs Cheltenham kick off?
Carlisle vs Cheltenham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Cheltenham?
Carlisle 0 - 1 Cheltenham.
Where is Carlisle vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Cheltenham part of?
Carlisle vs Cheltenham is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 33% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cheltenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Carlisle and Cheltenham will score (BTTS).
Will Carlisle vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Cheltenham?
Record (2 meetings): Carlisle 1W | Draws 0 | Cheltenham 1W.
What form are Carlisle and Cheltenham in?
Carlisle (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Cheltenham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Carlisle vs Cheltenham?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Carlisle's attack at 0.85x the league average against Cheltenham's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cheltenham's attack versus Carlisle's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cheltenham Win
33%
3.05
24%
4.13
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Carlisle xG
Total xG
2.98
1.60
Cheltenham xG
3.05
33%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
7%
15.13
11%
9.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Carlisle and 1.60 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Cheltenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Carlisle's recent record stands at 9W 11D 39L from 59 games, a 0.64 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Carlisle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cheltenham, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 33L across 59 games — 0.98 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Cheltenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carlisle on 0.64 PPG, Cheltenham on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Carlisle have managed 4W 7D 18L from 29 games — 0.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cheltenham's away record stands at 6W 5D 18L across 29 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Carlisle are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 0.98 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 59 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Blended
Cheltenham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carlisle and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 9W 11D 39L in their last 59 games (0.64 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 16W 10D 33L in their last 59 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Cheltenham away?
Cheltenham's away record (0.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 0.66 PPG; Cheltenham away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Carlisle and Cheltenham runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cheltenham have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Carlisle's record when hosting Cheltenham specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Carlisle
0
Draws
3
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Cheltenham?
From 4 meetings on record, Carlisle have won 1, Cheltenham have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Cheltenham last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Cheltenham 3-2 Carlisle.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and Cheltenham?
Cheltenham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 62%, Cheltenham 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Carlisle) and 52% (Cheltenham).
On the defensive side: Carlisle have failed to score in 31% of games; Cheltenham in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carlisle play Cheltenham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Carlisle's games and 59% of Cheltenham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Carlisle vs Cheltenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Carlisle's recent games and 52% of Cheltenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carlisle and Cheltenham tend to score early?
Carlisle have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Cheltenham in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cheltenham edge out Carlisle 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cheltenham beat Carlisle 0-1 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 14, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 1.37 xG and Cheltenham 1.60 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Carlisle fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.85 / defence 1.35 against Cheltenham attack 0.94 / defence 1.24, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 33% | Draw 24% | Cheltenham 43%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 49%, Cheltenham 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cheltenham's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carlisle 0.64 PPG, Cheltenham 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cheltenham win broke the near-deadlock. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Cheltenham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.