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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Carlisle defy the odds to beat Bromley 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carlisle beat Bromley 2-1 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 38, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 0.89 xG and Bromley 1.46 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Carlisle beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.63 / defence 1.27 against Bromley attack 1.06 / defence 1.09, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carlisle 23% | Draw 27% | Bromley 50%, with Bromley to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Carlisle win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 38%, Bromley 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carlisle's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Bromley's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bromley arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.73. Form was overturned, with Carlisle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Carlisle (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights