🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Bradford edge out Carlisle 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bradford beat Carlisle 0-1 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 27, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 0.93 xG and Bradford 1.25 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Carlisle fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.64 / defence 1.13 against Bradford attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 24/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carlisle 26% | Draw 31% | Bradford 43%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 44%, Bradford 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carlisle's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bradford's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.69. That form edge translated into the three points. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Bradford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights