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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AFC Wimbledon edge out Carlisle 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AFC Wimbledon beat Carlisle 1-2 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 37, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 0.54 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.06 xG, a combined 1.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AFC Wimbledon outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.59 / defence 1.21 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.81 / defence 0.70, drawn from 35/82 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carlisle 18% | Draw 34% | AFC Wimbledon 48%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 42%, AFC Wimbledon 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carlisle's trading profile (81 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (81 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, AFC Wimbledon arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.70. Form held, and they took the win. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights