🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Cambridge United cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Tranmere.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambridge United beat Tranmere 4-2 at Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.56 xG and Tranmere 1.23 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Cambridge United beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 1.06 / defence 0.78 against Tranmere attack 1.28 / defence 1.15, drawn from 25/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 45% | Draw 25% | Tranmere 30%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 38%, Tranmere 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambridge United's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Tranmere's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cambridge United 1.15 PPG, Tranmere 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambridge United win broke the near-deadlock. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tranmere (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights