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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cambridge United and Swindon Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 41, as Cambridge United and Swindon Town drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.55 xG and Swindon Town 0.96 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 1.32 / defence 0.77 against Swindon Town attack 1.08 / defence 0.96, drawn from 39/86 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 51% | Draw 26% | Swindon Town 24%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 39%, Swindon Town 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambridge United's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Swindon Town's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cambridge United 1.29 PPG, Swindon Town 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights