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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cambridge United edge out Salford City 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambridge United beat Salford City 1-0 at Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.79 xG and Salford City 1.01 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Salford City landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 1.39 / defence 0.80 against Salford City attack 1.06 / defence 1.08, drawn from 37/84 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 56% | Draw 23% | Salford City 21%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 40%, Salford City 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambridge United's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Salford City's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cambridge United 1.29 PPG, Salford City 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambridge United win broke the near-deadlock. Cambridge United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights