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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Cambridge United run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Notts County.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambridge United beat Notts County 4-0 at Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.50 xG and Notts County 1.04 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Cambridge United beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Notts County landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 1.26 / defence 0.78 against Notts County attack 1.13 / defence 0.97, drawn from 41/88 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 48% | Draw 26% | Notts County 26%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 38%, Notts County 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambridge United's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Notts County's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cambridge United 1.29 PPG, Notts County 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambridge United win broke the near-deadlock. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights