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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cambridge United and Harrogate Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambridge United and Harrogate Town finished level at 1-1 at Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 0.95 xG and Harrogate Town 0.97 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.84 / defence 0.98 against Harrogate Town attack 0.91 / defence 0.89, drawn from 2/48 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 32% | Draw 34% | Harrogate Town 34%, with Harrogate Town to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 44%, Harrogate Town 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambridge United's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cambridge United 0.85 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights