🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Cambridge United defy the odds to beat Fleetwood Town 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambridge United beat Fleetwood Town 2-1 at Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 0.89 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.10 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cambridge United beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.82 / defence 0.95 against Fleetwood Town attack 1.00 / defence 0.92, drawn from 8/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 29% | Draw 31% | Fleetwood Town 40%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Cambridge United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 41%, Fleetwood Town 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambridge United's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fleetwood Town arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Cambridge United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights