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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cambridge United edge out Crewe 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambridge United beat Crewe 2-1 at Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.12 xG and Crewe 0.99 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cambridge United beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.92 / defence 0.89 against Crewe attack 0.93 / defence 0.91, drawn from 17/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 38% | Draw 30% | Crewe 32%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 40%, Crewe 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambridge United's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Crewe's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cambridge United 1.02 PPG, Crewe 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambridge United win broke the near-deadlock. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm. Crewe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights