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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cambridge United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Crawley Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambridge United beat Crawley Town 3-1 at Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.42 xG and Crawley Town 0.77 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cambridge United beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.87 / defence 0.93 against Crawley Town attack 0.71 / defence 1.24, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 53% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 20%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 41%, Crawley Town 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambridge United's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Crawley Town's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cambridge United 0.95 PPG, Crawley Town 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambridge United win broke the near-deadlock. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights