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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cambridge United and Colchester share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 33, as Cambridge United and Colchester drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.43 xG and Colchester 0.93 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 1.20 / defence 0.86 against Colchester attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 31/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 49% | Draw 27% | Colchester 24%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 42%, Colchester 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambridge United's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Colchester's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cambridge United 1.28 PPG, Colchester 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights