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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cambridge United and Chesterfield share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as Cambridge United and Chesterfield drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.60 xG and Chesterfield 1.24 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.95 / defence 0.89 against Chesterfield attack 1.15 / defence 1.22, drawn from 18/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 46% | Draw 25% | Chesterfield 30%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 41%, Chesterfield 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambridge United's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Chesterfield's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Chesterfield arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights