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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bromley and Swindon Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Hayes Lane, Regular Season - 23, as Bromley and Swindon Town drew 1-1 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bromley 1.84 xG and Swindon Town 1.35 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bromley fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bromley attack 1.13 / defence 1.25 against Swindon Town attack 0.93 / defence 1.24, drawn from 21/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bromley 48% | Draw 24% | Swindon Town 28%, with Bromley to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bromley 43%, Swindon Town 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bromley's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Swindon Town's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bromley arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights