🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Bromley edge out Shrewsbury 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bromley beat Shrewsbury 2-1 at Hayes Lane, Regular Season - 42, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bromley 1.74 xG and Shrewsbury 0.77 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bromley attack 1.12 / defence 0.79 against Shrewsbury attack 0.83 / defence 1.28, drawn from 87/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bromley 61% | Draw 23% | Shrewsbury 16%, with Bromley to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bromley 48%, Shrewsbury 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bromley's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Shrewsbury's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bromley arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights