🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Bromley cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Salford City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bromley beat Salford City 2-0 at Hayes Lane, Regular Season - 17, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bromley 1.77 xG and Salford City 1.17 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Salford City landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bromley attack 1.32 / defence 1.05 against Salford City attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bromley 51% | Draw 23% | Salford City 25%, with Bromley to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bromley 48%, Salford City 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bromley's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Salford City's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bromley 1.50 PPG, Salford City 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bromley win broke the near-deadlock. Bromley (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights