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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Salford City edge out Bromley 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Bromley 2-3 at Hayes Lane, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bromley 1.06 xG and Salford City 1.18 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Bromley beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Salford City outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bromley attack 0.91 / defence 1.06 against Salford City attack 1.06 / defence 0.92, drawn from 38/83 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bromley 32% | Draw 29% | Salford City 39%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bromley 42%, Salford City 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bromley's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Salford City's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bromley 1.37 PPG, Salford City 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Bromley (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights