Bromley vs Port Vale – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bromley's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Port Vale's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Port Vale's attack versus Bromley's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
29%
3.49
28%
3.52
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Bromley xG
Total xG
2.44
1.37
Port Vale xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
7%
13.72
15%
6.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bromley vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bromley and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Bromley and 1.37 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Bromley vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.