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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bromley and Notts County share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Hayes Lane, Regular Season - 32, as Bromley and Notts County drew 1-1 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bromley 1.47 xG and Notts County 1.22 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bromley attack 1.35 / defence 0.97 against Notts County attack 1.05 / defence 0.86, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bromley 43% | Draw 26% | Notts County 31%, with Bromley to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bromley 51%, Notts County 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bromley's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Notts County's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bromley 1.68 PPG, Notts County 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights