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Bromley cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Harrogate Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bromley beat Harrogate Town 2-0 at Hayes Lane, Regular Season - 6, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bromley 1.42 xG and Harrogate Town 0.98 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Harrogate Town landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bromley attack 1.26 / defence 0.94 against Harrogate Town attack 0.93 / defence 0.93, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bromley 47% | Draw 27% | Harrogate Town 26%, with Bromley to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bromley 47%, Harrogate Town 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bromley's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bromley 1.47 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bromley win broke the near-deadlock. Bromley (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights