Bromley vs Gillingham – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bromley's attack at 0.92x the league average against Gillingham's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Bromley's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gillingham Win
32%
3.10
30%
3.36
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Bromley xG
Total xG
2.31
1.22
Gillingham xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
10%
10.45
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bromley vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Bromley and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Bromley and 1.22 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Bromley vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.