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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bromley cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Crawley Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bromley beat Crawley Town 3-1 at Hayes Lane, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bromley 2.61 xG and Crawley Town 1.07 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bromley attack 1.28 / defence 0.95 against Crawley Town attack 0.93 / defence 1.48, drawn from 64/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bromley 70% | Draw 16% | Crawley Town 13%, with Bromley to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bromley 48%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bromley's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Crawley Town's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bromley arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Bromley (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights