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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bromley and Cheltenham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Hayes Lane, Regular Season - 33, as Bromley and Cheltenham drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bromley 2.23 xG and Cheltenham 0.97 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bromley fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bromley attack 1.31 / defence 0.97 against Cheltenham attack 0.86 / defence 1.33, drawn from 77/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bromley 66% | Draw 19% | Cheltenham 15%, with Bromley to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bromley 51%, Cheltenham 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bromley's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Cheltenham's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bromley arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cheltenham (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights