🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Bristol Rovers defy the odds to beat Salford City 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bristol Rovers beat Salford City 2-1 at Memorial Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol Rovers 0.86 xG and Salford City 1.22 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Bristol Rovers beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol Rovers attack 0.80 / defence 0.91 against Salford City attack 1.16 / defence 0.86, drawn from 9/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bristol Rovers 26% | Draw 30% | Salford City 44%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Bristol Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol Rovers 47%, Salford City 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol Rovers's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Salford City's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Bristol Rovers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Salford City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights