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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Harrogate Town edge out Bristol Rovers 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Harrogate Town beat Bristol Rovers 0-1 at Memorial Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol Rovers 1.13 xG and Harrogate Town 1.17 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bristol Rovers fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol Rovers attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Harrogate Town attack 0.90 / defence 0.97, drawn from 0/46 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bristol Rovers 34% | Draw 29% | Harrogate Town 36%, with Harrogate Town to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol Rovers 48%, Harrogate Town 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol Rovers's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bristol Rovers 0.93 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Harrogate Town win broke the near-deadlock. Bristol Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights