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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Gillingham edge out Bristol Rovers 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gillingham beat Bristol Rovers 0-1 at Memorial Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol Rovers 1.02 xG and Gillingham 1.69 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bristol Rovers fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol Rovers attack 0.76 / defence 1.37 against Gillingham attack 1.04 / defence 0.98, drawn from 14/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bristol Rovers 23% | Draw 24% | Gillingham 53%, with Gillingham to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol Rovers 52%, Gillingham 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol Rovers's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Gillingham's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bristol Rovers 1.00 PPG, Gillingham 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gillingham win broke the near-deadlock. Bristol Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Gillingham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights