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Prediction vindicated as Bradford edge out Port Vale 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bradford beat Port Vale 2-1 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.05 xG and Port Vale 0.84 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Bradford beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 1.04 / defence 0.89 against Port Vale attack 0.79 / defence 0.79, drawn from 66/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bradford 39% | Draw 33% | Port Vale 28%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 48%, Port Vale 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bradford's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Port Vale's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bradford 1.47 PPG, Port Vale 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights