Bradford 3-1 Newport County – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bradford at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bradford vs Newport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bradford and Newport County meet at University of Bradford Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Monday 7 October 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Bradford (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at University of Bradford Stadium, Bradford have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Newport County have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Newport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Newport County away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Bradford against 1.50 for Newport County. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Bradford have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 6 meetings, with Newport County managing just 0 victories and 3 draws shared.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 4–1 with Bradford winning.
The historical record gives Bradford a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bradford — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Newport County — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 56% versus Newport County 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 51% | Newport County 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.73 xG and Newport County 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.978 / defence 0.895 | Newport County attack 0.811 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.187. Newport County bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Bradford's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Bradford games / 55 Newport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 58% | Draw 24% | Newport County 18%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Newport County 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Bradford (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bradford are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Bradford 40% | Newport County 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Newport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: University of Bradford Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 7 Oct 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 58% | Draw 24% | Newport County 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Bradford 1.73 / Newport County 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.978 / def 0.895 | Newport County attack 0.811 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Bradford (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Newport County xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Newport County kick off?
Bradford vs Newport County kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 7 October 2024 at University of Bradford Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Newport County?
Bradford 3 - 1 Newport County.
Where is Bradford vs Newport County being played?
The match is being played at University of Bradford Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Newport County part of?
Bradford vs Newport County is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Newport County?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 58% chance of winning, Newport County a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Newport County?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bradford and Newport County will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Newport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Newport County?
Record (6 meetings): Bradford 3W | Draws 3 | Newport County 0W.
What form are Bradford and Newport County in?
Bradford (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Newport County (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bradford's attack rating (0.98) and Newport County's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Newport County's attack (0.81x) against Bradford's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.25
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.59
0.86
Newport County xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
3%
30.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Newport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Bradford and Newport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Bradford and 0.86 for Newport County, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Newport County?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Bradford have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 22W 15D 18L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Newport County's form line: 21W 7D 27L from 55 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Newport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Bradford against 1.27 for Newport County. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bradford have posted 1.59 PPG from 27 outings (11W 10D 6L).
On the road, Newport County have gone 8W 1D 18L from 27 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bradford are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Newport County are on 1.40 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 55 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Blended
Newport County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Newport County in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 22W 15D 18L in their last 55 games (1.47 PPG), while Newport County have gone 21W 7D 27L in their last 55 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Newport County away?
Bradford's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.59 PPG; Newport County away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Bradford or Newport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Newport County in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bradford won 1-4 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bradford have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Newport County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Bradford
4
Draws
0
Newport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Newport County?
From 8 meetings on record, Bradford have won 4, Newport County have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Newport County last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Newport County 0-0 Bradford.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Newport County?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Newport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 52%, Newport County 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Bradford) and 56% (Newport County).
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Newport County in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Newport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Newport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Bradford's recent matches and 37% of Newport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bradford vs Newport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Bradford's recent games and 56% of Newport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Newport County tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Newport County in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bradford cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Newport County.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Newport County 3-1 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.73 xG and Newport County 0.86 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bradford beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.98 / defence 0.90 against Newport County attack 0.81 / defence 1.31, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 58% | Draw 24% | Newport County 18%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 51%, Newport County 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Newport County's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bradford 1.47 PPG, Newport County 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm. Newport County (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.