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Bradford cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Grimsby.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bradford beat Grimsby 3-1 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.48 xG and Grimsby 1.14 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bradford beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 1.09 / defence 0.91 against Grimsby attack 1.05 / defence 1.01, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bradford 43% | Draw 29% | Grimsby 28%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 51%, Grimsby 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bradford's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Grimsby's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bradford 1.51 PPG, Grimsby 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm. Grimsby (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights