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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bradford cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Crewe.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bradford beat Crewe 2-0 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.22 xG and Crewe 0.67 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 1.23 / defence 0.71 against Crewe attack 0.87 / defence 0.77, drawn from 86/86 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bradford 49% | Draw 30% | Crewe 20%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 46%, Crewe 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bradford's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Crewe's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bradford 1.62 PPG, Crewe 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Bradford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights