🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Bradford run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Colchester.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bradford beat Colchester 4-1 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 0.99 xG and Colchester 0.64 xG, a combined 1.64. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Bradford beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 1.07 / defence 0.66 against Colchester attack 0.90 / defence 0.72, drawn from 83/83 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bradford 43% | Draw 34% | Colchester 23%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 47%, Colchester 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bradford's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Colchester's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bradford 1.63 PPG, Colchester 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm. Colchester (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights