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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bradford edge out Chesterfield 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bradford beat Chesterfield 2-1 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.64 xG and Chesterfield 1.19 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 1.08 / defence 0.92 against Chesterfield attack 1.11 / defence 1.15, drawn from 67/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bradford 47% | Draw 26% | Chesterfield 27%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 54%, Chesterfield 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bradford's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Chesterfield's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bradford 1.55 PPG, Chesterfield 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Chesterfield (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights