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Dominant Bradford run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cheltenham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bradford beat Cheltenham 3-0 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.56 xG and Cheltenham 0.65 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bradford beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 1.13 / defence 0.65 against Cheltenham attack 0.93 / defence 1.08, drawn from 80/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bradford 59% | Draw 25% | Cheltenham 15%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 48%, Cheltenham 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bradford's trading profile (79 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cheltenham's trading profile (79 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Cheltenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights