Bradford vs Barrow – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bradford's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Barrow's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Barrow's attack (0.65x) against Bradford's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
51%
1.97
29%
3.50
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.15
0.78
Barrow xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
5%
19.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Barrow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bradford and Barrow expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Bradford and 0.78 for Barrow, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Barrow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.