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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Walsall cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Barrow.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Walsall beat Barrow 1-3 at Holker Street, Regular Season - 44, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Barrow 0.87 xG and Walsall 1.43 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Walsall outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barrow attack 0.75 / defence 1.09 against Walsall attack 1.12 / defence 0.93, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Barrow 23% | Draw 27% | Walsall 50%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barrow 48%, Walsall 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Barrow's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Walsall's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Walsall arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Barrow (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Walsall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights