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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Tranmere run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Barrow.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tranmere beat Barrow 0-3 at Holker Street, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Barrow 1.29 xG and Tranmere 1.79 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Barrow fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Tranmere outscored their 1.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barrow attack 0.82 / defence 1.13 against Tranmere attack 1.30 / defence 1.14, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Barrow 28% | Draw 23% | Tranmere 49%, with Tranmere to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barrow 41%, Tranmere 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Barrow's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Tranmere's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Barrow 1.23 PPG, Tranmere 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tranmere win broke the near-deadlock. Barrow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tranmere (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights