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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Swindon Town cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Barrow.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swindon Town beat Barrow 1-3 at Holker Street, Regular Season - 7, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Barrow 1.00 xG and Swindon Town 1.50 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Swindon Town outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barrow attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Swindon Town attack 1.33 / defence 0.93, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Barrow 25% | Draw 26% | Swindon Town 49%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barrow 35%, Swindon Town 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Barrow's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.

Swindon Town's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Barrow 1.25 PPG, Swindon Town 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swindon Town win broke the near-deadlock. Barrow (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Swindon Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights