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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Salford City edge out Barrow 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Barrow 1-2 at Holker Street, Regular Season - 24, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Barrow 0.96 xG and Salford City 1.54 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barrow attack 0.76 / defence 1.27 against Salford City attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Barrow 23% | Draw 27% | Salford City 50%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barrow 45%, Salford City 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Barrow's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Salford City's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Barrow 1.20 PPG, Salford City 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Barrow (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights