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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Barrow and Salford City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Barrow and Salford City finished level at 1-1 at SO Legal Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Barrow 1.26 xG and Salford City 1.22 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barrow attack 1.02 / defence 0.98 against Salford City attack 1.17 / defence 0.98, drawn from 85/84 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Barrow 37% | Draw 27% | Salford City 36%, with Barrow to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barrow 40%, Salford City 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Barrow's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Salford City's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Barrow 1.36 PPG, Salford City 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights