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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Harrogate Town edge out Barrow 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Harrogate Town beat Barrow 0-1 at Holker Street, Regular Season - 33, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Barrow 0.93 xG and Harrogate Town 0.94 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Barrow fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barrow attack 0.74 / defence 1.15 against Harrogate Town attack 0.70 / defence 0.99, drawn from 76/78 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Barrow 34% | Draw 32% | Harrogate Town 34%, with Barrow to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Harrogate Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barrow 47%, Harrogate Town 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Barrow's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Barrow 1.13 PPG, Harrogate Town 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Harrogate Town win broke the near-deadlock. Barrow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights