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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Harrogate Town cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Barrow.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Harrogate Town beat Barrow 0-2 at SO Legal Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Barrow 1.49 xG and Harrogate Town 0.92 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Barrow fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Harrogate Town outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barrow attack 1.03 / defence 0.97 against Harrogate Town attack 0.80 / defence 1.07, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Barrow 49% | Draw 29% | Harrogate Town 22%, with Barrow to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Harrogate Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barrow 38%, Harrogate Town 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Barrow's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Barrow 1.41 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Harrogate Town win broke the near-deadlock. Barrow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights